E-ISSN 2705-3954 | ISSN 0794-4756
 
2025, Vol: 32, Issue: 3
32 / 3Current Issue Online FirstArchiveAims and ScopeAbstracting & IndexingMost Accessed ArticlesMost Downloaded ArticlesMost Cited Articles

Original Research 


APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA

Lawal Mamudu, Alhassan Yahaya, Salisu Danazumi, Lawal Mamudu.


Abstract
Using 25 years monthly discharge data (1988 to 2013), the discharge of River Kaduna was investigated for the possibility of accurate forecast. With the aid of ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) test, auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation functions the discharge was found to exhibit a stochastic non-stationary seasonal time series behaviour which becomes stationary after first seasonal differencing. Based on this, the study predicted the discharge of the river from 2014 to 2018 using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and validates this with the actual discharge of the river for the corresponding period. Hence, the study concluded that SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 mode is the most appropriate based on the selection criteria, and could adequately predict the discharge of River Kaduna with minimal errors.

Key words: SARIMA, River Kaduna, Discharge, Time series


 
ARTICLE TOOLS
Abstract
PDF Fulltext
How to cite this articleHow to cite this article
Citation Tools
Related Records
 Articles by Lawal MAMUDU
Articles by Alhassan YAHAYA
Articles by Salisu DANAZUMI
Articles by Lawal MAMUDU
on Google
on Google Scholar

How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Mamudu L, Yahaya A, Danazumi S, Mamudu L. APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE. 2021; 28(2): 84-90.

Web Style

Mamudu L, Yahaya A, Danazumi S, Mamudu L. APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. https://www.njeabu.com.ng/?mno=108688 [Access: June 23, 2026].

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Mamudu L, Yahaya A, Danazumi S, Mamudu L. APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE. 2021; 28(2): 84-90.


Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Mamudu L, Yahaya A, Danazumi S, Mamudu L. APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE. (2021), [cited June 23, 2026]; 28(2): 84-90.


Harvard Style

Mamudu, L., Yahaya, . A., Danazumi, . S. & Mamudu, . L. (2021) APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE, 28 (2), 84-90.


Turabian Style

Mamudu, Lawal, Alhassan Yahaya, Salisu Danazumi, and Lawal Mamudu. 2021. APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. Nigerian Journal of Engineering, 28 (2), 84-90.


Chicago Style

Mamudu, Lawal, Alhassan Yahaya, Salisu Danazumi, and Lawal Mamudu. "APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA." Nigerian Journal of Engineering 28 (2021), 84-90.


MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Mamudu, Lawal, Alhassan Yahaya, Salisu Danazumi, and Lawal Mamudu. "APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA." Nigerian Journal of Engineering 28.2 (2021), 84-90. Print.


APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Mamudu, L., Yahaya, . A., Danazumi, . S. & Mamudu, . L. (2021) APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. Nigerian Journal of Engineering, 28 (2), 84-90.


Author LoginReviewer LoginAbout PublisherEditorial Review PolicyPeer Review PolicyEditorial & Peer Review ProcessPlagiarism Policy

About Nigerian Journal of Engineering

Nigerian Journal of Engineering (NJE) is a publication of the Faculty of Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria - Nigeria. NJE publishes origina ... Read more.



For best results, please use Internet Explorer or Google Chrome.

Contact Information

The Editor–in–Chief

Nigerian Journal of Engineering

Faculty of Engineering

Ahmadu Bello University

Samaru - Zaria Nigeria

E-mails:

nje@abu.edu.ng, njeabu@yahoo.com